All Eyes on Prediction Markets

On Sept 3 the CFTC cleared Polymarket's path via a no-action letter tied to its $112M acquisition of CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX, enabling a regulated U.S. relaunch, while reports say new financing could value Polymarket around $9–10B, up from about $1B in June. On Sept 15, Polymarket and Stocktwits launched Earnings prediction markets that let equity holders hedge pre-earnings risk, give analysts real-time odds to sharpen models, and benchmark forecasters via transparent win rates; a Sept 12 Chainlink integration promises faster, more credible resolutions. Yet the near-term leaderboard tilts to Kalshi: tracker data show Kalshi running roughly 62% of total volume versus Polymarket’s 37%, with Kalshi’s September weekly volume pacing over $500 million. Looking at Sep 11–17 OI to volume ratio, Kalshi averages about $189 million OI on about $642 million weekly volume (~0.29), while Polymarket averages about $164 million OI on about $430 million weekly volume (~0.38), implying stickier positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi. The gap likely reflects differences in market and resolution speed: Polymarket’s longer-dated markets park collateral, while Kalshi’s short-cycle markets resolve faster. As Polymarket’s quick-resolving Earnings markets scale, its OI/Vol may drift lower.

MetaMask Launches mUSD

MetaMask rolled out its wallet-native stablecoin MetaMask USD (mUSD) on September 15, 2025, issued by Bridge (Stripe’s stablecoin arm) and minted via the M0 protocol, with initial support on Ethereum and Linea. The design keeps everything in-wallet (buy, swap, bridge, spend) and is backed 1:1 by short-duration U.S. Treasuries under Bridge’s compliance framework. Crucially, mUSD is the first stablecoin launched by a self-custodial wallet provider, and that wallet-native distribution is the moat: by embedding a dollar-pegged asset directly into MetaMask’s default flow, it taps instant reach to millions, compresses onboarding, and creates on-ramp-to-spend loops without third-party listings. Circulating supply is ~$53M, with ~86% on Linea, thanks to Ignition’s incentive alignment (50% of Etherex LP rewards to mUSD pairs plus extra REX), making the early flywheel decisively Linea-centric even as Ethereum support is live. mUSD also lands amid a 2025 stablecoin boom, with a dozen-plus new launches YTD and total market cap near $287B in August, driven by deeper DeFi utility, clearer rules, and surging cross-border payment flows.

Native USDC Lands on HyperEVM

Circle is rolling out native USDC to the Hyperliquid stack, on HyperEVM first, then HyperCore, with CCTP v2 for mint/burn transfers. The launch kicked off around $12M in initial liquidity, a nascent ~3.5% slice in a HyperEVM stablecoin pie still dominated by USDT0’s $193M (55%) and thBILL’s $16M (17.5%), while feUSD’s early 40%+ reign has faded since July. This listing is a strategic plant, pairing Circle’s distribution and fiat-ramp muscle with Hyperliquid’s perps engine, and is part of a deeper ecosystem alignment, with HYPE token buys for skin-in-the-game ownership, validator aspirations to steer consensus, and a toolkit of SDKs/APIs/incentives to rally builders. Competition is set to intensify: Native Markets has secured the USDH ticker and will issue USDH natively on HyperEVM, setting up a head-to-head race for collateral share.

Base Exploring a Token

Base is now exploring a network token, a strong pivot from its earlier “no token” stance. The team says sub-second, sub-cent transactions and an “open stack” are in place, and a token could accelerate decentralization and expand builder/creator opportunities as Base pushes toward a global onchain economy. They’re early—no timing or design shared—but outline three commitments: stay aligned with Ethereum, work with regulators as a U.S. company, and build in the open with the community. In the backdrop, Base is already a top-earning L2 (August sequencer profit surpassed $5.9M), so a token could formalize incentives (points/airdrops, governance) and amplify ecosystem flywheels, as users and protocols try to earn points and future allocations. The real test: token economics that reinforce Ethereum alignment, not a short-term farm.

The September RWA Wave

We did our best to write the most comprehensive RWA report, but this vertical is moving fast. Since we wrapped, four new launches dropped: Hong Kong’s Guofu Fund Tokenized RWA Fund; Fidelity Digital Interest Token (FDIT), a new onchain tokenized money market fund with Ondo’s OUSG as sole anchor and largest investor; Grove’s $50M allocation to the new Anemoy Tokenized Apollo Diversified Credit Fund (ACRDX) launched in partnership with Plume and Centrifuge; and ORQO Group’s yield platform for tokenized assets. Zooming in on Fidelity: FDIT adds a blue-chip wrapper to onchain cash management, with ~$203M in current supply concentrated in two wallets, signaling an institutional, aggregator-led start. These launches, especially Fidelity, reinforce a core signals from our report: tokenized money funds were the first RWA class to scale and remain the anchor of the vertical, carrying the highest allocations and the most institutional usage profile (large tickets, few investors). Meanwhile, newer products like credit, commodities, and tokenized stocks are increasingly retail-led, with broader holder bases and smaller ticket sizes as the market moves up the yield curve and into more exotic assets.

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Dune Team